From the Caol Ila guy · Thread · Price raid · 2026-08-20

Caol Ila 12 slips below a hundred for members

1/A twelve-year-old Islay malt for under a hundred dollars doesn't come round often. Members get Caol Ila 12 at $99 at Dan Murphy's this morning; the shelf sticker is $138 and hasn't moved.

2/What makes $99 a buy and not just a low number: the bottle's own ten-strong CE 360° jury puts fair value near $114. Ninety-nine dollars lands below that, and a shade under the bottom of its fair-value band ($100).

3/This is the softer, lemon-and-woodsmoke side of Islay — a lot of people's first proper peated malt. Good buying at $99 today. A gentle way into Islay smoke, or would you still stump up for Lagavulin? Tell me the price where you shop.

Sources

generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-08-20-replay/price-raid/caol-ila-12-year-old-single-malt-scotch-whisky-700ml-4e744e; harvest pair base 2026-08-13, latest 2026-08-20.
List price $138 (claim value 138.0; grounding.current_price 138.0; harvest price_list $137.99 both weeks, unchanged). Member offer $99 this week (grounding.current_price_harvest 99.0; harvest price_member $99.00, on_offer yes 2026-08-20); no offer 2026-08-13 (price_member = price_list = $137.99).
CE 360° fair value: mean $113.70, band floor $100.29 (2026-08-20.r dossier caol-ila-12-year-old-single-malt-scotch-neighbourhood.md, reference card; gap over consensus 17.6% = 78th percentile).
Character: factor profile Peat & Maritime 0.32 + Yuzu & Green Tea 0.06 (peat, smoke, citrus) — same dossier.

Omissions

No peer prices are quoted; the standing rests on the bottle's own CE 360 jury, not a live cross-read of the cohort.
Member basis: $99 is a My Dan Murphy's member price; non-members pay the unchanged $138 shelf. Stated in the post.
No percentage move quoted; the piece states the offer's presence, not a trend.

Notes for reviewer

Clears the bar: $99 is under the CE 360 mean ($113.70) and just under the band floor ($100.29) — a genuine standing story.
Replay draft on rehearsal vintage 2026-08-20.r; may_publish: false and never flips in replay.

Format note

Price raid, member basis. Move measured on the harvest pair 2026-08-13 → 2026-08-20: list price unchanged at $138 both weeks; the $99 is a My Dan Murphy's member offer present this week and absent last (member-to-member comparison). Standing read against the bottle's own CE 360 fair value ($113.70, 2026-08-20.r dossier). flag OK, corrected false.

Frontmatter as merged

{
 "date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
 "title": "Caol Ila 12 slips below a hundred for members",
 "angle": "price-raid",
 "position": "n/a",
 "status": "draft",
 "derives_from": "none — standalone; the automated replay cycle grounds this on the week's harvest pair and the vintage's CE 360 bands, no spoke article backs it",
 "grounded_on": "2026-08-20.r",
 "may_publish": false,
 "replay": true,
 "review_priority": "standard",
 "artefact_id": "2026-08-20-replay/price-raid/caol-ila-12-year-old-single-malt-scotch-whisky-700ml-4e744e",
 "format_note": "Price raid, member basis. Move measured on the harvest pair 2026-08-13 → 2026-08-20: list price unchanged at $138 both weeks; the $99 is a My Dan Murphy's member offer present this week and absent last (member-to-member comparison). Standing read against the bottle's own CE 360 fair value ($113.70, 2026-08-20.r dossier). flag OK, corrected false.",
 "claims": [
  {
   "item": "Caol Ila 12 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
   "kind": "price",
   "value": 138
  }
 ],
 "subjects": [
  "Caol Ila 12 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL"
 ],
 "verified_at": "2026-09-27T05:53:06.000Z",
 "verified_by": "etl/price_verify.py (harvest sidecar danmurphys_whisky_products_2026-08-20.normalised.csv, as of 2026-08-20)",
 "verified_prices": {
  "786920": 137.99
 },
 "verification_note": "1 price claim(s) verified live",
 "quality_gate": "pass",
 "gated_at": "2026-09-27T05:53:06.000Z",
 "site_publish": true
}

premium over CE 360° · shared scale 0% to +70% across the eleven

Caol Ila 12

$137.99list 11-05

CE 360° $88.74 · 10.4% over · #4 of 16 in Islay

per standard drink $5.81 · #15 of 16 in Islay

28 pieces · observed

source file: drafts/2026-08-20-price-raid-caol-ila-12.md