1/Count on Islay this week: of the sixteen bottles on the shelf, none sits near its own 360° jury. Every one lands over it. All sixteen priced live at Dan Murphy's this Thursday, so this is the whole shelf, not a slice. The gaps run from twelve percent to thirty-one.
2/How I'm reading it: each price against the fair value its own jury gives that bottle, in percent — the shelf runs $75 to $150, so percent travels better than dollars here. Nothing dips under its mean, so the near end is "least over", never a discount.
3/The least-over end, all live: Ardbeg 10 at $119, about 12% past its jury. Lagavulin 8 at $127, a hair more. The Wee Beastie at $106, same again. Laphroaig 10 ($128) and Caol Ila 12 ($138) sit a rung back near 14%. On a mainland shelf these read as premium.
4/The words behind the tax, pooled off the shelf's own reviews, region-wide: iodine and sea-salt, a medicinal streak, smokiness, a note of grilled fish over the barbecue. That's what the island charges for, and the shelf knows it. Not a description of any single bottle.
5/The dear end. Bunnahabhain Stiuireadair at $108 sits about 31% over its own mean — the widest gap on the shelf, and a live price, not a stale one. Behind it the 12-year at $128 near 21%, then two Lagavulin 11 Sweet Peat / Laphroaig Quarter Cask around 20%.
6/Here's the one worth pausing on. Ardbeg An Oa is the cheapest ticket on the shelf, $75, and it still lands in the cold end at about 22% over. Cheap on the shelf, dear against its own low jury number. A genuine gap, not a data artefact — the two hold different questions.
7/So the tidy read: Islay's a shelf with a floor but no bargain. Sixteen bottles, all over their own number, the least-over pours the two Ardbegs and the Lagavulin 8. Cheapest honest way onto the island tonight, the $106 Wee Beastie or the $119 Ardbeg 10?
claims row.| End | Item | Price | Gap % | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot 1 | Ardbeg 10 Year Old Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL | $119 | +11.51% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| Hot 2 | Lagavulin 8 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL | $127 | +11.53% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| Hot 3 | Ardbeg Wee Beastie Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL | $106 | +11.58% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| (hot) | Laphroaig 10 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL | $128 | +13.62% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| (hot) | Caol Ila 12 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL | $138 | +13.66% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| Cold 1 | Bunnahabhain Stiuireadair Whisky 700mL | $108 | +31.19% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| Cold 2 | Ardbeg An Oa Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL | $75 | +21.73% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| Cold 3 | Bunnahabhain 12 Year Old Scotch Whisky 700mL | $128 | +20.63% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| (cold) | Lagavulin 11 Year Old Sweet Peat Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700ml | $165 | +19.98% | observed 2026-09-10 |
| (cold) | Laphroaig Quarter Cask Scotch Whisky 700mL | $170 | +19.94% | observed 2026-09-10 |
None recorded.
None recorded.
Whole Shelf, scope Islay (region), vintage 2026-09-10.r (pack region-islay-aggregate.json). Gap basis PERCENTAGE — read from the aggregate as stored (its price range $75.00–$150.00 gives a max/min ratio of 2, which the rollup rule reads as percentage). ce_gap_pct = (price − CE 360° mean)/price × 100, each bottle's premium over its own CE 360° consensus; 'hot' = smallest premium (closest to fair value), 'cold' = largest. No bottle here sits below its own mean, so 'hot' is not a bargain or a discount. 'Hot'/'cold' are value-signal labels only, never sales velocity, popularity, or trend. Coverage 16 of 16 members priced live in the 2026-09-10 harvest (100%). Sources holds the stored top/bottom notable-mover cut, not the full ranked shelf.
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