From the front page · Thread · The whole shelf · 2026-09-17

Six Irish bottles, all above their jury — by 2% to 23%

1/The Midleton family shelf (Jameson, Powers, Redbreast and the flagship) is a small one: six bottles, all six priced live this week at Dan Murphy's. Ranked by how far each sits over its own fair-value jury, here's how the house lines up.

2/Closest to fair value is Jameson's litre at $80, barely 2% over its own consensus. Then the Caskmates Stout edition at $73, and Powers Gold at $70. Honest, everyday pricing right across the cheap end.

3/Furthest over: Midleton Very Rare at $434, about 23% above what its peer group reads it worth. That's the flagship tax — you're buying the tier, not just the liquid in the glass.

4/Redbreast 12 sits between the two at $124, 7% over; Jameson Black Barrel at $68 is 3% over. One thing worth saying plainly: "closest to fair value" is not "a bargain". None of these is under its jury. They just differ in how far above it they land.

5/Six bottles, one distilling house, a spread from 2% to 23% over consensus. Buying Irish this week, the value all lives at the Jameson-and-Powers end. What's your Midleton pour?

Sources

generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-09-17-replay/whole-shelf/midleton-region-4c8399; pack region-midleton-aggregate.json, vintage 2026-09-17.r. Coverage 6 of 6 members observed live (100%), as-of 2026-09-17.
Ranked by ce_gap_pct (premium over each bottle's own CE 360° mean), all prices observed this cycle: - Jameson Blended Irish Whiskey 1L — $80, 1.5% over (claims). - Jameson Caskmates Stout Edition Irish Whiskey 700mL — $73, 2.42% over. - Powers Gold Label Irish Whiskey 700mL — $70, 2.73% over. - Jameson Black Barrel Blended Irish Whiskey 700mL — $68, 3.41% over. - Redbreast 12 Year Old Irish Whiskey 700mL — $124, 7.08% over. - Midleton Very Rare Irish Whiskey 700mL — $434, 22.63% over.
Price band $62–$433.99; scope CE 360° mean average $115.31 (grounding). Rounded percentages in the post: 2% (1.5/2.42), 3% (3.41), 7% (7.08), 23% (22.63).

Omissions

No member prices are used; all six are the observed shelf tickets.
With only six members, the Hot 3 and Cold 3 lists share bottles (Redbreast 12 and Black Barrel appear in both cuts) — the shelf is small enough that the cut is effectively the whole shelf, and the post ranks all six rather than implying a longer list.
No item was carried forward or excluded: all six were priced live this cycle.

Notes for reviewer

"Hot"/"closest to fair value" is a value-signal label only, stated as such in post 4 — not sales velocity or popularity. No bottle here sits under its consensus.
Midleton Very Rare's $434 is a genuine live ticket, not a data artefact; it is the shelf's real outlier.
Replay draft on rehearsal vintage 2026-09-17.r; may_publish: false and never flips in replay.

Format note

The whole shelf, scope Midleton (region) — the Irish Distillers / Midleton family: Jameson, Powers, Redbreast and the flagship. Gap basis: percentage, the aggregate's own (price range $62–$434, a ratio over 2 reads in percentage). Coverage 6 of 6 members priced live in the 2026-09-17 harvest (100%). Sources carries the stored top/bottom cut, not every member (the shelf is only six bottles, so the cut is the shelf). ce_gap_pct is each item's premium over its own CE 360° consensus; hot = smallest premium, not a bargain.

Frontmatter as merged

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source file: drafts/2026-09-17-whole-shelf-midleton.md