From the front page · Thread · Hot 21 / Cold 21 · 2026-10-01

Pool five Scotch shelves and the value all sits at the cheap blend end

1/One scale, five Scotch shelves, 167 bottles — and every last one is priced above what its own CE 360° jury would pay. Not a bargain in the pool. The interesting part is where the premium runs thin and where it runs thick.

2/The wall keeps moving under us. Since the September pool: 35 of 80 Speyside bottles have changed price or 360° zone, plus 17 of 39 Highlands, 5 of 16 Islay, 1 of 10 Islands and 13 of 20 blends.

3/Thinnest premium of all 167 is Ballantine's Finest, $73 the litre, square on its mean. The two Johnnie Walker Reds follow — $79 for the 1.125L, $65 for the litre — barely a point above their own numbers.

4/Everyday blends fill the rest of that near-fair end: Cutty Sark $59, Dimple 12 at $58, Dewar's 12 for $63. Nobody is loading a markup onto these. Cheap to own, and honest about it.

5/Flip to the thick end and it is badges. Chivas Regal Ultis asks $296, a 60.46% markup on its own jury. Talisker Port Ruighe ($149) runs close at 53.28%, Compass Box Peat Monster ($102) third.

6/The money tier holds the pattern: Glenfiddich Grand Cru 23 at $559, the Dalmore 21 at $990, Chivas 25 at $646 — all carrying twenty-plus percent over the model's read of the liquid.

7/A housekeeping line. The cut is 21 hot, 19 cold. Lowlands brought only two live bottles, under our floor, so it sits out; Campbeltown fielded nothing. Two cold slots left open, nothing promoted to fill them.

8/Read it plainly: no steals on this wall, only distance from fair, and what slack there is pools among the cheap blends. So — the $58 Dimple or the $73 Ballantine's for the everyday shelf?

Sources

generate_cycle.py cycle payload, artefact 2026-10-01-cycle/hot-21-cold-21/ballantine-s-finest-blended-scotch-whisky-1l-johnnie-walker--f0475c, vintage 2026-10-01.1, pack hot-21-cold-21-aggregate.json.
Pool: 167 members, price band $50.99–$989.99 (median $110.0), mean-average CE 360° about $138.52 (grounding.pool). Scale: ce_gap_pct, percentage premium over each item's own CE 360° mean (grounding.scale).
Contributing Whole Shelf packs, all 100% priced live this cycle: Speyside (80/80), Highlands (39/39), Islay (16/16), Islands (10/10), Multi-Regional Blend (20/20) (grounding.contributing_scopes). Cited pieces: 2026-10-01-whole-shelf-speyside.md, 2026-10-01-whole-shelf-highlands.md, 2026-10-01-whole-shelf-islay.md, 2026-10-01-whole-shelf-islands.md, 2026-10-01-whole-shelf-multi-regional-blend.md.
Zero of the 167 sit below consensus: hot_shortfall 0, every hot ce_gap_pct ≥ 0.0 (params, grounding.hot). Stated in posts 1 and 3.
Hot 21 (smallest premium, all observed 2026-10-01): Ballantine's Finest Blended Scotch Whisky 1L $73 (0.0%); Johnnie Walker Red Label Blended Scotch Whisky 1.125L $79 (0.22%); Johnnie Walker Red Label Blended Scotch Whisky 1L $65 (0.23%); Cutty Sark Original Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL $59 (0.32%); Dimple 12 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL $58 (0.36%); Dewar's 12 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL $63 (0.49%); Glen Moray Classic Single Malt Scotch Whisky 1L $88 (0.72%); Grant's Triple Wood Blended Scotch Whisky 1L $69 (0.79%); Label 5 Premium Reserve 12 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL $68 (0.85%); Dewar's White Label Blended Scotch Whisky 1L $69 (0.85%); Label 5 Classic Black Blended Scotch Whisky 1L $72 (0.92%); Glen Moray Classic Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $71 (0.92%); Glen Moray Classic Port Cask Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $72 (0.95%); Glen Moray Peated Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $72 (0.95%); Glen Moray Sherry Cask Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $72 (0.95%); McAllister Scotch Whisky 1L $67 (1.0%); J&B Rare Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL $56 (1.01%); Chivas Regal 12 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL $60 (1.06%); The Singleton of Dufftown 12 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $71 (1.08%); Glen Moray Shiraz Finish Whisky 700mL $72 (1.09%); Label 5 Classic Black Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL $57 (1.13%) (grounding.hot).
Cold 19 (largest premium, all observed 2026-10-01): Chivas Regal Ultis Blended Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $296 (60.46%); Talisker Port Ruighe Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $149 (53.28%); Compass Box The Peat Monster Blended Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $102 (38.54%); Bunnahabhain Stiuireadair Whisky 700mL $115 (33.1%); Glenfiddich Grand Cru 23 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $559 (27.9%); Tamdhu Single Malt Cigar Malt Whisky 700mL $290 (26.64%); Dalmore 21 Year Old Malt Whisky 700mL $990 (25.48%); Glenfarclas 25 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $440 (23.6%); Chivas Regal 25 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL $646 (22.14%); Bunnahabhain 12 Year Old Scotch Whisky 700mL $128 (21.56%); Aberlour A'Bunadh Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $155 (21.42%); Ardbeg An Oa Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $75 (21.13%); Glenmorangie Signet 700mL $370 (20.32%); The Dalmore 18 Year Old Scotch Whisky 700mL $536 (20.3%); Lagavulin 16 Year Old Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $189 (20.29%); Glengoyne Cask Strength Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $173 (20.26%); Monkey Shoulder Blended Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $65 (19.66%); Tomintoul 25YO Speyside Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL $733 (19.36%); Smokehead High Voltage Islay Single Malt Whisky 700mL $127 (18.32%) (grounding.cold).
Coverage / shortfall: requested_cut 21; delivered 21 hot, 19 cold (params.n_hot 21, params.n_cold 19, cold_shortfall 2). Omitted scope Lowlands (2 of 2 priced live, below the Whole Shelf floor); missing scope Campbeltown (no catalogue items this cycle). Two Lowlands cold entries excluded and not backfilled (grounding.omitted_scopes, grounding.missing_scopes).
Cool-down (decision 15) — each pooled region led the 2026-09-10 Hot 21 / Cold 21 and its finding has since changed; verbatim from etl/cooldown_change.py:
Speyside: led 2026-09-10-hot-21-cold-21.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: 35 of 80 bottles changed price or 360° zone (44%; the bar is 10%) (2026-09-10.r to 2026-10-01.1)
Highlands: led 2026-09-10-hot-21-cold-21.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: 17 of 39 bottles changed price or 360° zone (44%; the bar is 10%) (2026-09-10.r to 2026-10-01.1)
Islay: led 2026-09-10-hot-21-cold-21.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: 5 of 16 bottles changed price or 360° zone (31%; the bar is 10%) (2026-09-10.r to 2026-10-01.1)
Islands: led 2026-09-10-hot-21-cold-21.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: 1 of 10 bottles changed price or 360° zone (10%; the bar is 10%) (2026-09-10.r to 2026-10-01.1)
Multi-Regional Blend: led 2026-09-10-hot-21-cold-21.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: 13 of 20 bottles changed price or 360° zone (65%; the bar is 10%) (2026-09-10.r to 2026-10-01.1)

Omissions

Nothing in the pool is under its own CE 360° mean; ce_gap_pct never goes negative, so 'hot' is the smallest premium, not a bargain. hot_shortfall is 0 — all 21 hot ranks filled, every one above consensus. Stated in posts 1 and 3.
Lowlands omitted (2 of 2 priced live, under Whole Shelf's coverage floor) and Campbeltown missing (no catalogue items this cycle), both named. The cut therefore runs 21 hot / 19 cold against a requested 21; the two vacated cold ranks were removed, not backfilled.
Only items live-checked in their own Whole Shelf piece are pooled, so a scope that checked a subset would carry that gap here. All five contributing scopes were 100% observed this cycle, so no price is carried and no member dropped for staleness.
'Hot'/'cold' are value-position labels only — never sales velocity, popularity, or a movement over time. Every figure is this week's cross-sectional position of a bottle against its own consensus.

Notes for reviewer

The pool reports 167 members while the five contributing scopes sum to 165; the extra two are Lowlands, counted in the pool but omitted from the cut (under the coverage floor). Same pattern as the 2026-09-10 pool. Confirm before posting.
Chivas Regal Ultis (+60.46%) and Talisker Port Ruighe (+53.28%) are genuine live extremes, not carried or corrected artefacts; they are headlined as the cold leaders.

Format note

Hot 21 / Cold 21, vintage 2026-10-01.1, pack hot-21-cold-21-aggregate.json. ce_gap_pct is each bottle's premium over its own CE 360° consensus, worked as (price − CE 360° mean)/price × 100, and has never gone negative — so 'hot' is closest to fair value, never below it, never a discount. Nothing in the 167-member pool sits under its mean this cycle. One common percentage scale across every pooled region, whatever basis each region's own Whole Shelf piece used. Contributing, all priced live: Speyside (80/80), Highlands (39/39), Islay (16/16), Islands (10/10), Multi-Regional Blend (20/20). Lowlands omitted (2 of 2 priced live, under Whole Shelf's coverage floor); Campbeltown missing (no catalogue items). The cut runs 21 hot / 19 cold — two Lowlands cold entries removed and not backfilled.

Frontmatter as merged

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 "date": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
 "title": "Pool five Scotch shelves and the value all sits at the cheap blend end",
 "angle": "hot-21-cold-21",
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 "status": "draft",
 "derives_from": "none — standalone second-order roundup; it pools this cycle's Whole Shelf pieces, no long-form article backs it",
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   "item": "The Singleton of Dufftown 12 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
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   "value": 71
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   "item": "The Singleton of Dufftown 12 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
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  {
   "item": "Glen Moray Shiraz Finish Whisky 700mL",
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   "kind": "value",
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   "kind": "value",
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  {
   "item": "Aberlour A'Bunadh Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
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  {
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   "kind": "value",
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 "format_note": "Hot 21 / Cold 21, vintage 2026-10-01.1, pack hot-21-cold-21-aggregate.json. ce_gap_pct is each bottle's premium over its own CE 360° consensus, worked as (price − CE 360° mean)/price × 100, and has never gone negative — so 'hot' is closest to fair value, never below it, never a discount. Nothing in the 167-member pool sits under its mean this cycle. One common percentage scale across every pooled region, whatever basis each region's own Whole Shelf piece used. Contributing, all priced live: Speyside (80/80), Highlands (39/39), Islay (16/16), Islands (10/10), Multi-Regional Blend (20/20). Lowlands omitted (2 of 2 priced live, under Whole Shelf's coverage floor); Campbeltown missing (no catalogue items). The cut runs 21 hot / 19 cold — two Lowlands cold entries removed and not backfilled.",
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source file: drafts/2026-10-01-hot-21-cold-21.md