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Dan Murphy's · week of 2026-11-05

From the Balvenie guy · Thread · Price raid · 2026-10-01

A Glenfiddich 21 covers the Balvenie 21's ground for $428 less

1/The Balvenie Stories 21 'The Second Red Rose' is a $727 bottle on the shelf this week — top-tier Speyside, priced like a trophy.

2/The engine's second-closest match on make-up is another Scottish 21-year-old single malt: the Glenfiddich Gran Reserva 21, at $299. Same country, same style, $428 apart. The Glenfiddich is $299 now, where it sat at $331 when we last looked.

3/The Gran Reserva 21 is Glenfiddich's rum-cask-finished old statement — two decades in oak pointed at the glass rather than the display cabinet. Not the Red Rose's cask pedigree, but close company by profile.

4/Not the same whisky, and the Balvenie's rarity is real. It's profile geometry: the model ranks the Gran Reserva second of the Red Rose's matches. $727 for the Balvenie, or $299 for the Glenfiddich 21? What's the 21 going for near you?

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py cycle payload, artefact 2026-10-01-cycle/value-pick/the-balvenie-stories-21yo-the-second-red-rose-single-malt-sc-dc7ce5, grounded on vintage 2026-10-01.1; harvest pair base 2026-09-24, latest 2026-10-01 (grounding.trigger.base_harvest / latest_harvest).
  • The Balvenie Stories 21YO 'The Second Red Rose': shelf ticket $727 (claim value 727.0; grounding.ref.price_this_harvest 727.0), flat on last harvest ($727; grounding.ref.price_last_harvest 727.0), not a member offer.
  • Glenfiddich Gran Reserva 21: shelf ticket $299 (claim value 299.0; grounding.cand.price_this_harvest 299.0), against $331 last harvest (grounding.cand.price_last_harvest 331.0; move_flag OK), not a member offer.
  • Saving $428 (grounding.saving 428.0 = 727 − 299); price ratio 0.41 (grounding.ratio 0.4113), down from 0.46 last harvest (grounding.trigger.ratio_before 0.4553 → ratio_after 0.4112). "Four hundred and twenty-eight dollars" is the saving spelled out.
  • Engine pairing: Gran Reserva 21 is CE rank 2 in the Red Rose's cohort (grounding.ce_rank 2; ce_score 0.178) and VSM rank 10 (grounding.vsm_rank 10; vsm_score 0.916). Same country and style (grounding.same_country true, same_style true).
  • Cool-down (decision 15), verbatim from etl/cooldown_change.py: Glenfiddich Gran Reserva 21 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL: led 2026-09-10-value-pick-glenfiddich-gran-reserva-21-glen-grant-18.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: price $331 -> $299 (2026-09-10.r to 2026-10-01.1). The reference, the Balvenie Red Rose 21, is FREE (no thread in the last 4 weeks).

Omissions

  • Light form: no CE 360° jury for the reference, so this post does not say what the Red Rose's own cohort reads it worth — only what it costs on the shelf. No CE 360° band is shown for the candidate either.
  • The Glenfiddich "eased" from $331 to $299, a move under Price Raid's bar; it is stated as the week's figures, never as a repricing, a drop, or a raid (that is a different format with different rules).
  • No peer beyond the engine's second-ranked match is examined; a closer stand-in may exist that was not live-checked this cycle.

Notes for reviewer

None recorded.

Format note

Value pick, automated light form. The payload carries two shelf tickets, the engine's ranks and scores, the saving and the week's event; it does NOT carry the reference's CE 360° jury, so there is no ten-seats read of the Balvenie here — I open on its shelf ticket. The trigger is the stand-in easing: the Glenfiddich Gran Reserva 21 is $299 this week against $331 at its last feature (2026-09-10); that move is under Price Raid's bar, so it stays a value pick, not a raid, and the thread does not call it a drop. Shelf basis both legs. Candidate ranks in the reference's CE top-5 (CE rank 2, VSM rank 10).

Frontmatter as merged
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 "title": "A Glenfiddich 21 covers the Balvenie 21's ground for $428 less",
 "angle": "value-pick",
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 "format_note": "Value pick, automated light form. The payload carries two shelf tickets, the engine's ranks and scores, the saving and the week's event; it does NOT carry the reference's CE 360° jury, so there is no ten-seats read of the Balvenie here — I open on its shelf ticket. The trigger is the stand-in easing: the Glenfiddich Gran Reserva 21 is $299 this week against $331 at its last feature (2026-09-10); that move is under Price Raid's bar, so it stays a value pick, not a raid, and the thread does not call it a drop. Shelf basis both legs. Candidate ranks in the reference's CE top-5 (CE rank 2, VSM rank 10).",
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  "904301": 298.95
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