Scotch at Dan Murphy's, priced every Thursday. Lagavulin 16 and the ten bottles that define it.
Dan Murphy's · week of 2026-11-05

From the Proper Twelve guy · Thread · Compare the pair · 2026-10-08

The profile model's unlikeliest near-twins this week

1/Two whiskies at their own floor this week, and the shelf's oddest near-miss. Proper No. Twelve, the Irish blend, is $59. The Chita, Suntory's Japanese grain whisky, is $99, down from the $111 it carried in mid-September. Both plain shelf tickets, neither a members' deal.

2/Why they sit side by side: the profile model reads them as close kin. On make-up The Chita and Proper No. Twelve land in nearly the same spot, a cosine of 0.97. An Irish blend and a Japanese grain whisky, one broadly shared character.

3/The value model does not buy it. On worth-for-money it rates the two nowhere near each other. So take this as shared profile, not equal standing: different countries, different styles, one surprising overlap in the glass.

4/Put them together and the pair is $158, the cheapest the combination has been across the weeks I've tracked it; its usual sits near $168. Both bottles are at the low end of their own range right now. A bundle, if you want the two.

5/So which floor do you take? Proper No. Twelve at $59 for the easy mixing pour, or The Chita at $99 for the light, soft Japanese grain? Both Dan Murphy's today. If your local ticket reads differently, tell me the number.

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py cycle payload, artefact 2026-10-08-cycle/compare-the-pair/proper-no-twelve-irish-whiskey-700ml-the-chita-japanese-whis-ab158c, grounded on vintage 2026-10-08.1, window as-of 2026-10-08.
  • Proper No. Twelve Irish Whiskey 700mL: shelf ticket $59 (claim / grounding.ref.price), not a member offer; at its own-history floor (percentile 0.0, quiet_discount, 11 observations). Ireland, Blended.
  • The Chita Japanese Whisky 700mL: shelf ticket $99 (claim / grounding.cand.price), not a member offer; at its own-history floor (percentile 0.0, quiet_discount, 11 observations). Japan, grain whisky.
  • Similarity: VSM profile cosine 0.9679 (grounding.vsm_score); CE utility score 0.00225 (grounding.ce_score). same_country false, same_style false.
  • Pair combined-price series (grounding.pair_level.sum), 10 reference observations 2026-08-05 → 2026-10-01 plus today: today's $157.85 (claims sum $59 + $99) is at the low end; the reference mean is $167.98. Reported as a plain observation, not a movement claim.
  • Cool-down (decision 15): The Chita Japanese Whisky 700mL: led 2026-09-17-price-raid-the-chita.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: price $111 -> $99; 360° zone H -> M (2026-09-17.r to 2026-10-08.1). The earlier $111 is not a claims: entry (it cannot be verified live); it is quoted only as the dated prior observation the change rule requires.

Omissions

  • Light form only: no CE 360° band, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test on the two means. Ruled out here, not implied.
  • Each leg carries 11 in-window observations; the "at the floor" read rests on that history and the post keeps it to a timing observation, never a movement or trend claim (CHANNEL.md §1).
  • The pair-level sum test is the selection trigger; its p-value is not quoted. The post treats "cheapest in the window" as an observation, not a significance claim.
  • No bundle price is asserted as a recommendation; $158 is a literal sum of two live tickets ($59 + $99).
  • No per-bottle tasting words are carried for either bottle in this vintage's dossier set, so none is asserted; "easy mixing pour" and "light, soft grain" are category descriptors, not sourced sensory claims.
  • Proper No. Twelve 700mL / The Chita 700mL are both standard 700 mL, so the price comparison is like-for-like; a sibling compare candidate was not dropped for size.

Notes for reviewer

  • Flagged: the pairing is a profile-model near-twin (VSM cosine 0.97) but a value-model outlier (CE score 0.002). Confirm the post reads as "a cheap Irish blend and a keenly-priced Japanese grain, both at their floor and oddly alike on profile", not "these are the same whisky".
  • Flagged: The Chita is a repeat subject. Its finding changed ($111 → $99, 360° zone H → M since 17 September), which clears the cool-down to lead again. The post states that change as a dated fact, not as a trend or a repricing; please confirm it does not read as "the price is falling".

Format note

Compare the pair, automated light form. Two shelf tickets, each bottle's own-history position, and the pair's combined-price series; no CE 360° bands, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test on the two means (light form). Both prices shelf basis, neither a member offer. Both 700mL. Not a claim they are interchangeable: the profile model ranks them near-twins (VSM cosine 0.97), the value model rates them far apart (CE score 0.002) — a shared-character note with a keen combined price this week, not 'the same whisky, cheaper'. The Chita is a repeat subject whose finding changed since it last led (price $111 → $99, 360° zone H → M); the post states the change as a dated observation and Sources carries the cool-down line.

Frontmatter as merged
{
 "date": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
 "title": "The profile model's unlikeliest near-twins this week",
 "angle": "compare-the-pair",
 "position": "n/a",
 "status": "draft",
 "derives_from": "none — standalone; the automated cycle grounds this on the vintage build and the week's harvest, no long-form article backs it",
 "grounded_on": "2026-10-08.1",
 "may_publish": true,
 "review_priority": "flagged",
 "artefact_id": "2026-10-08-cycle/compare-the-pair/proper-no-twelve-irish-whiskey-700ml-the-chita-japanese-whis-ab158c",
 "format_note": "Compare the pair, automated light form. Two shelf tickets, each bottle's own-history position, and the pair's combined-price series; no CE 360° bands, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test on the two means (light form). Both prices shelf basis, neither a member offer. Both 700mL. Not a claim they are interchangeable: the profile model ranks them near-twins (VSM cosine 0.97), the value model rates them far apart (CE score 0.002) — a shared-character note with a keen combined price this week, not 'the same whisky, cheaper'. The Chita is a repeat subject whose finding changed since it last led (price $111 → $99, 360° zone H → M); the post states the change as a dated observation and Sources carries the cool-down line.",
 "claims": [
  {
   "item": "Proper No. Twelve Irish Whiskey 700mL",
   "kind": "price",
   "value": 59
  },
  {
   "item": "The Chita Japanese Whisky 700mL",
   "kind": "price",
   "value": 99
  }
 ],
 "subjects": [
  "Proper No. Twelve Irish Whiskey 700mL",
  "The Chita Japanese Whisky 700mL"
 ],
 "verified_at": "2026-10-08T05:58:28.000Z",
 "verified_by": "etl/price_verify.py",
 "verified_prices": {
  "673265": 98.9,
  "869246": 58.95
 },
 "verification_note": "2 price claim(s) verified live",
 "quality_gate": "pass",
 "gated_at": "2026-10-08T05:58:28.000Z",
 "site_publish": true,
 "quality_notes": "soft cooldown: 1 repeat(s) inside the 4-week cool-down, each with a changed finding; the piece must say w"
}